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Democrat Adam Frisch, who lost to U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert by just 546 votes in 2022, is shown here debating Boebert at the Club 20 event in Grand Junction last year (William Woody/Colorado Newsline).
A new poll conducted on behalf of Adam Frisch shows the Democrat just ahead of Rep. Lauren Boebert in a rematch for Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District in 2024.
In the poll, 50% of likely voters said they would vote for Frisch and 48% said they would vote for the Republican Boebert in November 2024.
“This poll is really confirming that this race is nothing less than a toss-up as we head into 2024,” said Jake Martin, the vice president of Keating Research.
Keating conducted the phone survey between Aug. 8 and Aug. 15 with 801 likely voters in the district, which the firm says was an accurate distribution of likely 2024 voters based on party registration, gender, age, region, education and ethnicity. It has a margin of error of 3.5%. CD3 stretches from Pueblo to Grand Junction and includes the southwestern corner of Eagle County and most of the Colorado’s Western Slope.
Keating is a Colorado-based firm that has done work for Democrats including Frisch, Secretary of State Jena Griswold and Attorney General Phil Weiser.
Frisch lost to Boebert in the 2022 midterm election by 546 votes. He is running for the Democratic nomination again, and the race is likely to gain national scrutiny and attention from both parties’ national congressional campaign arms.
Notably, Boebert’s unfavorability is above 50% for every demographic except for Republicans. Among total voters, 53% have an unfavorable view of the representative and 42% have a favorable view. It’s the first time Keating has Boebert’s unfavorable rating above 50%.
“She’s already starting down -11 on her favorability ratings, which is a tough place to be. She’s really paying the price for her extreme record across the board,” Martin said.
Popular among unaffiliated voters
Frisch, who has weaker name recognition than Boebert and who 40% of voters are unfamiliar with, is viewed favorably by 34% of voters and unfavorably by 26% of voters. That gives him a lot of room to grow his name recognition, and Keating Research founder and president Chris Keating said that historic polls show that as more people learn about Frisch, his favorability rating increases.
Keating and Martin said there are two variables driving Frisch’s current lead: Boebert’s unfavorability and his popularity among unaffiliated voters.
In the poll, Frisch is leading Boebert among unaffiliated voters, which make up the largest block of voters in the district, by 17 points. That trend remains true across gender and age among unaffiliated voters.
Frisch is also leading with Latino voters. The pollsters found that 65% of Latino voters support Frisch and 33% support Boebert.
Additionally, Frisch is outperforming President Joe Biden, who 44% of likely voters said they will vote for.
“Obviously this is a snapshot in time. A lot of things can happen in 14 months,” Keating said. “But I think what we’re seeing in the polls we’ve released over the past year or so … we’re seeing a steady improvement in Adam’s numbers. That’s a really good sign, when you see that type of progression.”
Keating only asked questions about a hypothetical election between Frisch and Boebert and did not ask questions about other candidates vying for the seat, including Democrat Grand Junction Mayor Anna Stout.
Frisch out-raised Boebert three-to-one in the most recent fundraising cycle and reported having $1 million more in campaign funds than Boebert.
“For the poll to have any relevance Aspen Adam needs to secure the Democrat nomination, which he only won by a couple hundred votes last time. This primary he’ll have to explain whether he’s lying to liberals or lying to conservatives about his policies. So far, Adam has proven he’s lying to both,” Drew Sexton, Boebert’s campaign manager, wrote in an email.
Editor’s note: This story first appeared on Colorado Newsline, which is part of States Newsroom, a network of news bureaus supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Colorado Newsline maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Quentin Young for questions: firstname.lastname@example.org. Follow Colorado Newsline on Facebook and Twitter.